NOT NECESSARY TO PUT WAR BACK ON THE TABLE; IRAN IS AT WAR

BY Hamid Bahrami

Two years have passed since the signing of the ineffective nuclear agreement between world powers and Tehran, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).For those who are familiar with the theocracy in Iran, it is a known fact that all foreign policy in Iran are decided by the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. This is even true in the case of the highly promoted nuclear deal.

It is worth noting that before and during the negotiations, Khamenei, said that Oman had a key role in breaking the ice between Iran and the US.

Thus, it is naive to think that the new president, Hassan Rouhani, was the one who changed the 10-year-long stalemate. Iran has an abundance of oil, gas and others natural resources, hence, using nuclear energy is both expensive and controversial.

Independent experts acknowledge that Iran’s goal of maintaining a nuclear program is to produce nuclear weapon. However, Iran has consistently refused these views and claims that its program is of a peaceful nature.

Regional hegemony

It is worth pointing out that having a nuclear warhead will guarantee Iran’s regional hegemony. Therefore, Iran has consistently tried to achieve it. Hashemi Rafsanjani, the former Iranian president and one of the pillars of the Islamic Republic who died last year, said that Iran was trying to make nuclear bomb.

“When we first began, we were at war and we sought to have that possibility for the day that the enemy might use a nuclear weapon”, he said in an interview. Consequently, the regime in Tehran sought nuclear weapons in order to tilt the balance of power in the region in its favor.

The West imposed comprehensive sanctions against Iran targeting its finance sector and its selling of oil. These intelligent punitive measures exacerbated the Iranian economy that already suffered greatly from decades of economic mismanagement and widespread corruption, to the point of destruction, according to statistics from Iran’s own Central bank. The inflation was over 30 percent in 2013.

Iranian authorities confess that the greatest threat to theocracy is not a foreign enemy, like the US, but popular protests, especially by the disenfranchised poor people and youth

Economic poverty put immense pressure on the Iranian middle class, the Iranian government even tried to redefine the base basket of food (government subsidies to the Iranian middle class) to control the inflation. Rouhani's government even started to distribute especial food baskets. The regime’s National Security Council warned about hungry rebellion. Salaries of labors was unpaid and economic deadlock brought the government to its knees.

Although, Iran’s goal of making nuclear weapon was in reach and Tehran increased its intervention in the region, the economic crisis threatened the theocracy's very existence. Consequently, the Supreme Leader ordered his officials to start the negotiation with the West. This was president Obama giving artificial respiration to Tehran.

After the agreement

The sanctions aimed at stopping Iran’s nuclear program. According to the JCPOA, Iran must redesign and rebuild its heavy-water reactor in Arak. It means that Iran’s abilities to develop and produce nuclear weapon is intensively limited for years. Some experts, diplomats and government officials argue that the sanctions achieved their goal.

But at that time, the JCPOA did not include the rest of Iran’s threatening and destabilizing activities such as its ballistic missile program, dispatch of tens of thousands of militias and paramilitary forces to Syria. The JCPOA did neither addressed the appalling human rights situation in Iran.

Iran and violation of agreement

A conditional approval was published by the Supreme Leader Khamenei with regard to Tehran agreeing to the JCPOA. The document contained several conditions.

One of the conditions was about new sanctions after signing of the agreement, it said that “Any sanctions against Iran at every level and on any pretext, including terrorism and human rights violations, by any one of the countries participating in the negotiations will constitute a violation of the JCPOA, and a reason for Iran to stop executing the agreement.”

Considering that US has imposed several sanctions on Iran after the deal, one must ask the following question, why has Iran not stopped executing the agreement?

The Iranian regime is besieged by extensive social discontent. Over 10 millions are unemployed and many ordinary Iranians are forced to live a life below poverty-line.

Not a foreign enemy

Indeed, Iranian authorities confess that the greatest threat to theocracy is not a foreign enemy, like the US, but popular protests and anti-regime demonstrations, especially by the disenfranchised poor people and youth, breaking the current status quo.

The reality is that the regime has always been at war with the young generation over individual liberties and social freedoms, which challenged the foundation of the regime’s theocracy. That is why Iran’s answer to new US sanctions has been merely rhetoric.

Due to the theocracy’s weak position in the society and its faltering economy, if Tehran abandons the nuclear agreement, all sanctions will be re-imposed. That will led to an economic and political collapse of the ruling theocracy.

Consequently, if president Trump orders to renegotiate the JCPOA, or impose new effective sanctions such as designation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization, Iran is not able to play its enrichment card.

These were the reasons sanctions forced the Iranian regime to come back to the negotiation table, and it will do it again.

______________________

Freelance journalist Hamid Bahrami has served as political prisoner in Iran. He is a human rights and political activist living in Glasgow, Scotland. His works covers Iran’s destructive actions in the Middle East and social crackdown in Iran. He tweets at @HaBahrami & blogs at analyzecom.

Source:NOT NECESSARY TO PUT WAR BACK ON THE TABLE; IRAN IS AT WAR

Khamenei's Fear of Public Outrage of Regime Crimes, Especially in 1980s, and Popular Acceptance of Resistance

Praising a film made by IRGC for whitening these crimes, and ordering a film to whitewash the butcher of Tehran

While public outrage and hatred of the massacre of political prisoners in the 80s is growing, the Justice-Seeking movement is advancing, and the PMOI and Iranian Resistance are more welcomed by the Iranian people, Khamenei resorts to a humiliated act to praise the film titled as "Majera-ye Nimrouz". This film was made upon Khamenei’s order by the fascist bands of the Revolutionary Guards and was aimed at whitewashing and justifying the numerous crimes of this regime in the 1980s.

The government's media reported on July 15 that the film was shown to Khamenei, after which its producers went to meet Khamenei. While praising the film producers, he said, “The film was very good. All the components of the movie were great, it was directed greatly. The actors and the scenario were excellent. The film was well-made.” Prior to this, even some state-affiliated individuals had made comments regarding the distortion of historical events in the film and had said that the film narrated a period when the government executed PMOI members mercilessly.

Khamenei's meeting with the producers of the film, which happened in March last year according to state media, was made public with a few months delay at a time when Khamenei and the regime at its totality received a terrible blow from the Iranian people and Resistance and failed to bring Ebrahim Reisi to the office in presidential election.

Fifteen days after this defeat, Khamenei warned on June 4th against the change of place of the martyr and hangman in the 80s.

In that meeting, Khamenei called for producing a film about Assadullah Lajevardi, who was nicknamed the butcher of Tehran and Eichmann of Iran, and said: "Let's do something for Mr. Lajevardi. He is one of the characters that deserves something to be done for him.” Lajevardi was hated by all the Iranian people for executing tens of thousands of political prisoners and imposing the most brutal tortures on political prisoners, especially on women. So many pregnant women, young girls and elderly mothers were executed by this hangman. The number of executed prisoners in 1981 and 1982 sometimes reached 400 political prisoners per day.

Azghandi, one of the agents of Khamenei's gang, revealed the mullahs’ regime’s fear of the widespread Justice-Seeking movement and said, “In the 2010s, they are putting Khomeini under question via the 1980s slogans, and have started trialing Khomeini.” He attacked the other faction for admitting to some of the crimes of the regime's anti-human crimes and said: "These individuals have been responsible for the security of the country for 30 years, for 20 years. No security orders were issued without their signatures; half of our authorities have been working for the Intelligence Ministry….Members of our government have a background of working for the Ministry of Intelligence.... These acts mean the destruction of Imam (Khomeini); they don’t mention anything about Imam, the target is Imam himself though…” (State TV-channel 1- July 14, 2017)

THE RISKS OF DOING BUSINESS WITH IRAN

by Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

Investors should be extremely cautious about doing business with Iran. Having assisted numerous profitable international companies in the region, I would strongly argue that at the moment, the risks of making long-term investments in Iran outweigh the benefits.

I totally understand why investors may find Iran appealing at first glance. It is still known as the largest untapped emerging market in the world.

It is the second-largest economy in the Middle East and North Africa after Saudi Arabia.It has an estimated $1.35 trillion of purchasing-power parity, making it the world’s 18th-largest economy.

It has the region’s second-largest population after Egypt, and is the world’s 17th most populous nation, with some 82 million people. Iran’s market appears to be multidimensional, with very profitable energy, consumer, mining and tech sectors. Foreign products — primarily American, followed by European then Asian — are very popular among Iranians.

Western firms may jump to invest in Iran because they do not want to fall behind their Asian counterparts. The impetus for European companies may be Europe’s slow economic growth. But due to geopolitics, volatility and the changing dynamics between the US and the region, all these attractions should not delude companies into investing.

The first major risk is linked to Washington’s Iran policy. US pressure and sanctions on Tehran will likely continue to escalate, affecting American and non-American companies. The US may re-impose its sanctions bill that targets non-American companies doing business with Iran. If a company does business with both countries, its investments could be in peril. Quitting Iran’s market would not be easy for those with long-term investments.

The second danger concerns political stability. Most of the young population are disenchanted with the ruling clerics. This, and increasing regional pressure from a united front of Arab states and the US, do not provide a ripe environment for investors to do business with Iran.

The US may re-impose its sanctions bill that targets non-American companies doing business with Iran. If a company does business with both countries, its investments could be in peril.

Thirdly, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which controls much of Iran’s economy, are tightening their grip on the market. This state-generated economy creates less competition and more bureaucracy. Some foreign industries and companies will find it challenging and not lucrative to do business with Iran, particularly given legal trade frameworks and limited labor laws.

The next risk relates to UN Security Council (UNSC) sanctions. If the nuclear deal collapses or it is proved that Tehran is violating it, sanctions may be re-imposed. Finally, some Iranian entities and individuals are still blacklisted, for reasons including violating UNSC resolutions and crimes against humanity. When doing business with Iran, it is difficult to know if these entities and individuals have stakes in those business deals.

This can lead to legal issues and impact the credibility of investors and firms. Similarly, countries in the region that are negatively impacted by Tehran’s activities may decide not to deal with those foreign companies. In addition, most profits go to the regime, not the people, so doing business with Iran would empower the regime to further repress the population and advance its regional hegemonic ambitions.

• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated, Iranian-American political scientist. He is a leading expert on Iran and US foreign policy, a businessman and president of the International American Council. 

originally published in the arabnews

U.S. SHOULD TURN UP THE HEAT ON IRAN

U.S. SHOULD TURN UP THE HEAT ON IRAN

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson called the support of "elements inside of Iran that would lead to a peaceful transition of" power. He made the comments in a hearing on State Department budget for next year before the House Foreign Affairs Committee. Secretary Tillerson’s testimony on Iran, coupled with that of near unanimous Senate vote on “Countering Iran's Destabilizing Activities Act of 2017”

 bill condemning mullahs’ missile proliferation program, human rights record and destabilizing role in the Middle East, was received in Tehran as a recipe for disaster.

It is for the first time in nearly four decades of mullahs’ rule that a U.S. Secretary of State clearly calls for regime change. It might be a coincidence that at the same time the strongest Senate vote to date against Iran’s religious dictatorship is passed with 98 votes out of 100.

US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson holds a press conference on Iran in the Treaty Room of the State Department in Washington, DC on April 19, 2017. (MANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty Images)

The bill is also unique because while it targets the most important issues involving the Iranian regime’s provocative actions, it has not violated the nuclear deal or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPA) struck by the Obama administration. It is an important reminder since the deal is often used as an excuse to give the regime in Tehran a free pass.

Some in the West were falsely led to believe that Hassan Rouhani’s second term would reign in Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) ambiguous missile proliferation program. In the weeks after the sham election and before his official inauguration it became abundantly clear that no such change is in Iranian political horizons.

“They are taken by mistake if the new U.S. rulers think they can pressurize Iran with bills … in the Senate and Congress,” Rouhani said in reference to a new Senate move, IRNA news agency reported. Earlier in his second term victory speech Rouhani vowed to continue with mullahs’ missile program.

On June 21, the Iranian opposition, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), the whistle-blower of the mullahs’ nuclear and missile programs, held a press conference in its Washington office to give newly obtained information on the regime missile program from sources inside Iran. Its largest affiliate, the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (POMI/MEK), first obtained the information that IRGC with the help of North Korean engineers are developing and testing a variety of medium and long range missiles.

It is no secret that since the 2015 nuclear deal the Iranian regime has stepped up production and testing of ballistic missiles. It has been playing permanent host to scientists from North Korea, which has the know-how to build and launch atomic weapons. The mullahs’ regime sees North Korean’s help and knowledge so crucial to its missile program that it has housed their scientists and technicians in Tehran.

NCRI says that IRGC is working in 42 missile sites. The regime is busy in "development, manufacture, and testing of missiles by the IRGC. It also determined that at least one such center, located in Semnan Province, 52 miles southeast of Tehran, was actively collaborating with the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research (Persian abbreviation: SPND), which had previously been identified as the institution in charge of nuclear weapons-related work in the Islamic Republic."

“On the basis of specific intelligence, the IRGC’s missile sites have been created based on North Korean models and blueprints,” the NCRI said. “North Korean experts have helped the Iranian regime to build them. Underground facilities and tunnels to produce, store, and maintain missiles have also been modeled after North Korean sites and were created with the collaboration of the North Korean experts.”

NCRI also exposed in April secret facilities IRGC uses to enrich uranium. Some things will never change with this regime. It is constantly looking for back doors when it comes to transparency and coming clean on its nuclear and missile programs. The two are indivisible components of keeping the mullahs’ regime afloat in the turbulent times.

A close examination of the Iranian regime’s ever growing harassment of its neighbors, not to mention its direct involvement in soon to be 7-year-old Syrian war, harassment of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and especially that of the U.S. Navy vessels, demonstrate that it is not going to back off. General Joe Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in an interview recently that Iran is “harassing U.S. and international maritime activities” in the Persian Gulf. There have been reports of vessels originated from Iran carrying weapons for Houthis in Yemen. Australian navy patrolling the area near Bab-el-Mandeb intercepted a few of them last year.

Not taking into account the mullahs’ brutality at home, which is unprecedented in Iran’s modern history, the destabilizing role it has played in the region since day one is more than enough for the international community to draw the line.

The new sanctions bill is an effective first step to push back. Since its introduction the Iranian regime’s officials are terrified of consequences and some have called it the "mother of all sanctions" or the "black hole." It is obvious that a regime change policy, which does not involve U.S. military intervention, requires putting some teeth into it in another way. The bill and similar measures such as outright black listing of IRGC as the main actor in all the regime’s devious activities in Iran, in the region, and beyond, requires such drastic measures. Recognizing the legitimate resistance of Iranian people against the regime is another undeniable component of a regime change.

The Iranians are increasing their production of nuclear-capable missiles.

The report identifies 15 sites related to missile manufacturing

THE TRUMPET, June 25, 2017--   Last week the National Council of Resistance of Iran ( NCRI ) identified 12 previously undisclosed missile production sites across Iran. It is a foreboding sign of Iran’s march towards nuclear weaponry.

The NCRI report details how Iran’s missile program has accelerated since the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The NCRI claims to have gathered its facts from sources within the clerical regime as well as reports from the Ministry of Defense, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (the organization that first revealed Iran’s secret heavy water and uranium enrichment sites).
Site Locations

The NCRI identified 42 independent missile centers involved in the production, testing and launching of missiles, in a report published on June 20. Some of these bear the hallmarks of Iran’s nuclear comrade, North Korea.

The report identifies 15 sites related to missile manufacturing. Many of these sites have several factories churning out weapons components.

Combined, the other 27 sites house 25 storage facilities, 13 launch pads, and eight sites for training and deployment brigades.

The report notes:

The regime has spent hundreds of millions of dollars to build each one of the centers underground and inside mountains, which sheds light on the magnitude of the resources allocated to its missile program overall.

Another interesting point highlighted is where the launch sites are located. The launch sites are primarily in two locations. The first is in the western mountains and central regions. The second batch is pointed directly at the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.

Coincidental? Considering Iran’s objectives and the decades of Trumpet warnings, Iran is clearly developing capabilities to aggressively assert itself in one of the most crucial waterways in the world. It is also placing sites as close as possible to Israel, the Middle East heartland, the Mediterranean and Europe.

North Korea Involved

It isn’t surprising that Iran’s weapon sites have North Korean fingerprints all over them. According to the report, many of the missile sites are channeling a particular North Korean vibe. Underground facilities to store and maintain missiles were also developed in line with North Korean models.

The collusion between the rogue regimes runs far deeper than most reports have previously claimed. As the report notes, “These ties have been strengthened to a degree where the IRGC has built a special residence for North Korean experts beside the command center of the Hemmat Missile Industry Group in Tehran.”

Considering North Korea’s nuclear capabilities, collusion between the two is a strong indication that the missile and nuclear programs are one and the same.

Who Is Orchestrating the Buildup?

Meet Aerospace Force. Under direct orders from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, this IRGC branch has been spearheading the advancements. Formerly Iran’s air force, Aerospace Force is one of the four primary branches of the IRGC.

The head of the Aerospace Industries Organization (AIO), Brig. Gen. Mehrdad Akhlaghi, is currently sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury Department. The AIO has eight different missile industry groups that tackle anything from guidance systems to cruise missile development.

But it does not work alone. Meet AIO's best friend, the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research (or its Persian acronym, SPNC).

The existence of the nuclear engineering unit called SPND was first exposed by the NCRI back in 2011. In 2014, it was blacklisted by the U.S. State and Treasury departments. It is the “nerve center” for Iran’s nuclear program, with seven different subdivisions. Each is responsible for developing a different part of the nuclear bomb. According to NCRI, it is still fully operational despite the JCPOA.

As Forbes contributor Heshmat Alavi wrote, “Iran has been able to maintain intact the bigger bulk of its nuclear program, run by the military apparatus. Even the so-called civilian aspects of Tehran’s nuclear effort is under military control.”

Nuclear and Missile Programs Linked

It’s no surprise that Iran is continuing to work toward nuclear weapons. Nor should we be shocked that its missile and nuclear programs are intertwined.

Iran resolutely maintains that the missile program is separate from the nuclear program. However, the NCRI report clearly shows the ongoing collaboration between the missile centers and the SPAD.
Take Semnan Missile Center—the largest missile complex in Iran. The SPND allegedly conducts tests at this site. The site is also visited weekly by high-ranking SPND officials. Why would nuclear engineers need to spend so much time at a ballistic missile facility?

Hiding behind the guise of national defense, Iran continues to block International Atomic Energy Agency officials from visiting these secretive sites—the perfect location for nuclear development wouldn’t you think?

Of course, the secrecy also hampers efforts to validate the NCRI claims. But history has proven the NCRI to be a credible source when it comes to exposing Iran’s nuclear apparatus.

The missile program is intricately linked to North Korean and Iranian nuclear programs. Any leap forward in missile development should be seen as a leap toward the acquisition of nuclear weapons!

The National Council of Resistance of Iran With Its MEK Members, Goes on Offensive at Weekend Events

By Jubin Katiraie

This weekend in a cavernous convention hall outside of Paris, over 100,000 flag waving, foot-stomping, cheering supporters of the National Council of Resistance of Iran ( consisted of MEK/PMOI and other groups and personalities) gathered for their annual meeting.

Part pep rally and part television programming for a global audience, the annual event has for years been focused on galvanizing support for the MEK and drawing attention to the plight of dissident refugees sheltering in squalid camps inside Iraq and subject to frequent attacks from Iranian-backed forces resulting in score of deaths.

What was different this year was that all of MEK members —nearly 3,000 of them—were safely evacuated to a welcoming Albania as part of long-delayed resettlement program and escaped the clutches of an Iranian regime that seemed hell-bent on eradicating any sign of an indigenous Iranian resistance movement.

In a dramatic cinematic touch, a satellite feed from Tirana, Albania of the 3,000 resettled MEK members was beamed into the main Paris rally to the delight of the participants and vice-versa in what could be considered the world’s largest video conference call.

The atmosphere bordered on giddy as the MEK logged several positive developments over the past few months, not the least of which was the survival of their besieged members in Iraq.

The movement , from a sea change in political fortunes with the departure of the Obama administration and the incoming Trump administration taking a decidedly harder tone with the Iranian regime, along with a Republican-controlled Congress that has made it a legislative priority to re-impose economic sanctions on Iranian regime for its ballistic missile program and sponsorship of terrorism.

The Iranian resistance movement, led by the National Council of Resistance of Iran which counts as its members human rights groups and the People’s Mojahedin-e , (PMOI/MEK), experienced a similar resurgence within Iran itself as the Iranian political landscape experienced what can only be described as a significant earthquake during presidential elections this year.

Top mullah Ali Khamenei and his personally selected councils did an admirable job vetting thousands of candidates for president to just six men, all of whom were old hands within the clerical bureaucracy, but Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guard Corps which controls virtually all of the Iranian economy, made a move to push incumbent Hassan Rouhani out and install Ebrahim Raisi whose dubious claim to fame was to be part of a “death commission” that helped sentence 30,000 Iranian dissidents mainly MEK members and supports to death in 1988.

The attempted swap failed and the regime had to resort to its usual ballot box stuffing to make it look like there was an overwhelming turnout from an electorate that was decidedly unenthusiastic over its choices or lack thereof.

In fact, the NCRI and its leader, Mrs. Maryam Rajavi, got an unexpected boost with some of the most overt and daring signs of public protest yet in Iran under the mullah’s rule with the hanging of banners and signs bearing Mrs. Rajavi’s picture throughout Tehran and other provinces.

The mere act of publicly supporting the banned MEK can get you imprisoned and executed in record time, but that did not deter what seemed by a considerably larger number of clandestine protestors, including a steady stream that secretly filmed themselves (without their faces showing) clapping in rhythm to a banned resistance song in front of iconic Iranian landmarks.

The parallel changes in fortunes in the U.S. and in Iran produced a cavalcade of speakers ranging from noted American politicos such as former Speaker Newt Gingrich, former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani and former FBI director Louis Freeh to human rights activists Ingrid Betancourt of Columbia and Rama Yade, French human rights minister, taking the podium to pronounce a common theme: The Iranian regime was in trouble internally and it was time for the world to align itself with the Iranian resistance movement.

Gingrich, ever the professorial lecturer, reminded the audience of President Ronald Reagan’s decision to support a nascent Solidarity union movement led by a then-unknown welder named Lech Walesa in helping topple Poland’s communist regime and spark and the beginning of the end of the Cold War.

A similar move to endorse the NCRI and Mrs. Rajavi might be the catalyst necessary to ignite regime change within Iran according to several speakers, including former Senator and vice-presidential candidate Joe Lieberman.

Most intriguing was the unity shown by a parade of speakers and delegations from assorted Arab nations, led by Saudi Prince Turki bin Faisal, who emphasized how radically things had shifted in the Middle East by labeling Iran the center of all of the turmoil the region is currently experiencing.

It was a notion hard to ignore since Iranian forces and support are now involved in a vast area including Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen, Bahrain, and Pakistan in a variety of proxy conflicts, terrorist actions and efforts to overthrow regional governments.

This is on top of the proliferation of ISIS which was enabled by Iranian regime through its meddling in Iraqi politics forcing a split between Sunni and Shia coalition partners and driving Sunnis into the arms of a then-nascent ISIS that was getting a free pass in Syria from attack by Assad regime and Iranian regime-backed forces in order to concentrate their firepower on moderate rebel groups.

Speaker after speaker noted how the Obama administration’s ill-fated attempt to curry favor with the mullahs in Tehran through a flawed nuclear agreement that essentially paid for most of the regime’s military for the past three years had failed miserably and now the Trump administration is left to deal with the debris in its wake.

But the tone was upbeat and optimistic in that the prospect of real regime change within Iran actually closer now that it had been in most participants’ recent memory.

Mrs. Rajavi, in her remarks, emphasized that regime change must come from within Iran and not be perceived as being fueled or controlled by external forces such as the U.S. Only then could the Iranian people embrace a peaceful movement to a true democracy willingly aligning themselves with fellow exiled Iranians notably MEK members.

The stage has been set and the recipe seems to be cooking. Now we just have to see if the chef can whip up a masterpiece.

More about MEK:

A Long Conflict between the Clerical Regime and the MEK

The origins of the MEK date back to before the 1979 Iranian Revolution., the MEK helped to overthrow the dictatorship of Shah Reza Pahlavi, but it quickly became a bitter enemy of the emerging the religious fascism under the pretext of Islamic Republic. To this day, the MEK and NCRI describe Ruhollah Khomenei and his associates as having co-opted a popular revolution in order to empower themselves while imposing a fundamentalist view of Islam onto the people of Iran.

Under the Islamic Republic, the MEK was quickly marginalized and affiliation with it was criminalized. Much of the organization’s leadership went to neighboring Iraq and built an exile community called Camp Ashraf, from which the MEK organized activities aimed at ousting the clerical regime and bringing the Iranian Revolution back in line with its pro-democratic origins. But the persistence of these efforts also prompted the struggling regime to crack down with extreme violence on the MEK and other opponents of theocratic rule.

The crackdowns culminated in the massacre of political prisoners in the summer of 1988, as the Iran-Iraq War was coming to a close. Thousands of political prisoners were held in Iranian jails at that time, many of them having already served out their assigned prison sentences. And with the MEK already serving as the main voice of opposition to the regime at that time, its members and supporters naturally made up the vast majority of the population of such prisoners.

As the result of a fatwa handed down by Khomeini, the regime convened what came to be known as the Death Commission, assigning three judges the task of briefly interviewing prisoners to determine whether they retained any sympathy for the MEK or harbored any resentment toward the existing government. Those who were deemed to have shown any sign of continued opposition were sentenced to be hanged. After a period of about three months, an estimated 30,000 people had been put to death. Many other killings of MEK members preceded and followed that incident, so that today the Free Iran rally includes an annual memorial for approximately 120,000 martyrs from the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran.

The obvious motive behind the 1988 massacre and other such killings was the destruction of the MEK. And yet it has not only survived but thrived, gaining allies to form the NCRI and acquiring the widespread support that is put on display at each year’s Free Iran rally. In the previous events, the keynote speech was delivered by Maryam Rajavi, who has been known to receive several minutes of applause from the massive crowd as she takes the stage. Her speeches provide concrete examples of the vulnerability of the clerical regime and emphasize the ever-improving prospects for the MEK to lead the way in bringing about regime change.

The recipients of that message are diverse and they include more than just the assembled crowd of MEK members and supporters. The expectation is that the international dignitaries at each year’s event will carry the message of the MEK back to their own governments and help to encourage more policymakers to recognize the role of the Iranian Resistance in the potential creation of a free and democratic Iranian nation. It is also expected that the event will inspire millions of Iranians to plan for the eventual removal of the clerical regime. And indeed, the MEK broadcasts the event via its own satellite television network, to millions of Iranian households with illegal hookups.

MEK’s Domestic Activism and Intelligence Network

What’s more, the MEK retains a solid base of activists inside its Iranian homeland. In the run-up to this year’s Free Iran rally the role of those activists was particularly evident, since the event comes just a month and a half after the latest Iranian presidential elections, in which heavily stage-managed elections resulted in the supposedly moderate incumbent Hassan Rouhani securing reelection. His initial election in 2013 was embraced by some Western policymakers as a possible sign of progress inside the Islamic Republic, but aside from the 2015 nuclear agreement with six world powers, none of his progressive-sounding campaign promises have seen the light of day.

Rouhani’s poor record has provided additional fertile ground for the message of the MEK and Maryam Rajavi. The Iranian Resistance has long argued that change from within the regime is impossible, and this was strongly reiterated against the backdrop of the presidential elections, when MEK activists used graffiti, banners, and other communications to describe the sitting president as an “imposter.” Many of those same communications decried Rouhani’s leading challenger, Ebrahim Raisi, as a “murderer,” owing to his leading role in the massacre of MEK supporters in 1988.

That fact helped to underscore the domestic support for the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran, insofar as many people who participated in the election said they recognized Raisi as the worst the regime had to offer, and that they were eager to prevent him from taking office. But this is not to say that voters saw Rouhani in a positive light, especially where the MEK is concerned. Under the Rouhani administration, the Justice Minister is headed by Mostafa Pourmohammadi, who also served on the Death Commission and declared as recently as last year that he was proud of himself for having carried out what he described as God’s command of death for MEK supporters.

With this and other aspects of the Islamic Republic’s record, the MEK’s pre-election activism was mainly focused on encouraging Iranians to boycott the polls. The publicly displayed banners and posters urged a “vote for regime change,” and many of them included the likeness of Maryam Rajavi, suggesting that her return to Iran from France would signify a meaningful alternative to the hardline servants of the clerical regime who are currently the only option in any Iranian national election.

Naturally, this direct impact on Iranian politics is the ultimate goal of MEK activism. But it performs other recognizable roles from its position in exile, not just limited to the motivational and organization role of the Free Iran rally and other, smaller gatherings. In fact, the MEK rose to particular international prominence in 2005 when it released information that had been kept secret by the Iranian regime about its nuclear program. These revelations included the locations of two secret nuclear sites: an uranium enrichment facility at Natanz and a heavy water plant at Arak, capable of producing enriched plutonium.

As well as having a substantial impact on the status of international policy regarding the Iranian nuclear program, the revelations also highlighted the MEK’s popular support and strong network inside Iran. Although Maryam Rajavi and the rest of the leadership of the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran reside outside of the country, MEK affiliates are scattered throughout Iranian society with some even holding positions within hardline government and military institutions, including the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Drawing upon the resources of that intelligence network, the MEK has continued to share crucial information with Western governments in recent years, some of it related to the nuclear program and some of it related to other matters including terrorist training, military development, and the misappropriation of financial resources. The MEK has variously pointed out that the Revolutionary Guard controls well over half of Iran’s gross domestic product, both directly and through a series of front companies and close affiliates in all manner of Iranian industries.

In February of this year, the Washington, D.C. office of the National Council of Resistance of Iran held press conferences to detail MEK intelligence regarding the expansion of terrorist training programs being carried out across Iran by the Revolutionary Guards. The growth of these programs reportedly followed upon direct orders from Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and coincided with increased recruitment of foreign nationals to fight on Tehran’s behalf in regional conflicts including the Syrian and Yemeni civil wars.

In the weeks following that press conference, the MEK’s parent organization also prepared documents and held other talks explaining the source of some of the Revolutionary Guards’ power and wealth. Notably, this series of revelations reflected upon trends in American policy toward the Islamic Republic of Iran. And other revelations continue to do so, even now.

MEK Intelligence Bolstering US Policy Shifts

Soon after taking office, and around the time the MEK identified a series of Revolutionary Guard training camps, US President Donald Trump directed the State Department to review the possibility of designating Iran’s hardline paramilitary as a foreign terrorist organization. Doing so would open the Revolutionary Guards up to dramatically increased sanctions – a strategy that the MEK prominently supports as a means of weakening the barriers to regime change within Iran.

The recent revelations of the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran have gone a long way toward illustrating both the reasons for giving this designation to the Revolutionary Guards and the potential impact of doing so. Since then, the MEK has also used its intelligence gathering to highlight the ways in which further sanctioning the Guards could result in improved regional security, regardless of the specific impact on terrorist financing.

For example, in June the NCRI’s Washington, D.C. office held yet another press conference wherein it explained that MEK operatives had become aware of another order for escalation that had been given by Supreme Leader Khamenei, this one related to the Iranian ballistic missile program. This had also been a longstanding point of contention for the Trump administration and the rest of the US government, in light of several ballistic missile launches that have been carried out since the conclusion of nuclear negotiations, including an actual strike on eastern Syria.

That strike was widely viewed as a threatening gesture toward the US. And the MEK has helped to clarify the extent of the threat by identifying 42 separate missile sites scattered throughout Iran, including one that was working closely with the Iranian institution that had previously been tasked with weaponizing aspects of the Iranian nuclear program.

The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) led by Maryam Rajavi is thus going to great lengths to encourage the current trend in US policy, which is pointing to more assertiveness and possibly even to the ultimate goal of regime change. The MEK is also striving to move Europe in a similar direction, and the July 1 gathering is likely to show further progress toward that goal. This is because hundreds of American and European politicians and scholars have already declared support for the NCRI and MEK and the platform of Maryam Rajavi. The number grows every year, while the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran continues to collect intelligence that promises to clarify the need for regime change and the practicality of their strategy for achieving it.

Iranian officials must be ‘brought to justice’

Prince Turki Al-Faisal

 

Paris - Arab Today, July 2, 2017 - Tens of thousands of Iranians gathered in the giant auditorium in Villepente Exhibition Center, near Paris, on Saturday in a massive expression of support urging the world to adopt a firm approach toward the theocratic regime in Iran.

 

The gathering featured a large and varied selection of speakers from all over the world and across the political spectrum, including Saudi Prince Turki Al-Faisal and a large delegation from the Syrian opposition.

 

Addressing the conference, Prince Turki Al-Faisal called for Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Iranian officials to be brought to justice for their “crimes against the Iranian people,” who he described as the “first victims” of the Iranian regime.

 

He said he was “honored” to be at the event, which was attended by thousands of people who fled “their country because of the dictatorship of the Mullahs’ regime.”
Prince Turki explained that what made Arabs and Iranians brothers, was “not only geography, but the humanitarian relationships.”

He added: “There are Arab tribes that lived in Iran and became families, and there are a lot of Persian families who came (to Saudi Arabia) to perform their pilgrimage and also became our families.”

 

He said all at the conference “stood together” as they shared a “mutual history” that helped the development of human civilization.
“All the (Gulf Cooperation Council) GCC countries and their neighbor Iran have always been living in harmony until the Khomeini revolution came into being in 1979,” Prince Turki added.

He said there was an “external strategy… to replace the concept of stability with the concept of coup and conflict.”

 

The rally focused on the prospects for democratic change in Iran and condemned the regime’s repression of human rights and record for regional intervention.
Speakers also voiced their support for change and solidarity with the Iranian opposition with the rallying cry of “free Iran.”

The gathering, held annually near Paris, typically draws hundreds of prominent figures from all over the world, and was an impressive display of the political muscle of Iran’s principle opposition, the National Council of Resistance of Iran ( NCRI ).

 

The rally captured the growing momentum for change regarding Iran, including changes in policies and attitudes in the Middle East and Washington, and the prospect for a new approach toward the regime in the Islamic Republic.

The array of speakers, which included several prominent Americans, including former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, and former US Ambassador to the UN, John Bolton, as well as Congressmen Ted Poe, expressed hope that the changes taking place in the international community would culminate in a new approach toward Iran and a strategic partnership with the Iranian opposition.

 

Giuliani said he hoped the new US administration would take steps to “not only implement a new approach toward the regime in Iran, but to embrace the Iranian opposition in tackling a common problem.”

Maryam Rajavi , the President-elect of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), struck a hopeful note for democratic change, stating: “The ruling regime is in disarray and paralyzed as never before. Iranian society is simmering with discontent and the international community is finally getting closer to the reality that appeasing the ruling theocracy is misguided.”

 

Rajavi highlighted the plight of Iran’s population under the current regime, and commended Iran’s political prisoners for supporting the gathering “from the depths of the regime’s torture chambers.”

“The sun of change is shining on Iran,” she added, to an enthusiastic crowd of thousands cheering “We are ready.”

 

Rajavi added that the international community must “recognize the resistance of the Iranian people to overthrow the mullahs’ religious dictatorship and designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization and evict it from the entire region.”

Gingrich praised the Iranian opposition as not only a just and pure movement, praising the leadership of Maryam Rajavi adding: “She is persistent in difficult times. She is a great leader. I thank each of you on her behalf to help her make her a truly historic figure. Our people want a constitution based on freedom, democracy, and equality.”

The rally offered a clear vision of what change in Iran could look like, and the broad base from all over the world to make this vision come true. Given the current political climate and the potential for change within the region, the prospect for a new Iran, and free Iran may be closer than ever.

Iran’s missiles: Dangers and policy recommendations

Iranmissile

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

Arab News, 27 June 2017 - In a press conference in Washington, the opposition National Council of Resistance of Iran ( NCRI ) revealed that on Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s orders, Tehran has accelerated its missile activities and tests since the nuclear deal.

Based on detailed intelligence obtained from Iran’s Defense Ministry and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Khamenei has tasked the latter’s Aerospace Force with executing this mandate. The NCRI has been one of the main sources of exposing secret aspects of Iran’s nuclear activities and its weapons-of-mass-destruction (WMD) program.

The latest revelation coincides with rising sensitivity and concern about Tehran’s missile program. The US Senate imposed wide-ranging new sanctions on Iran, partly for continuing and expanding its ballistic-missile program last week. The NCRI verified the locations of 42 centers involved in producing, testing and launching missiles. A dozen of them were revealed for the first time. Of the 42 sites, 15 are part of Tehran’s missile-manufacturing network.

These 15 centers include several factories related to a missile industry group, and together form a web of dozens of missile-production facilities. The NCRI identified four of Iran’s most important missile centers in Semnan, Lar, Khorramabad and near Karaj. Two of these centers are among the facilities that Tehran describes as missile cities.

The missile center in Semnan has been actively collaborating with the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research (SPND), which is tasked with building a nuclear bomb. Some of the tests related to the organization are conducted at this site.

The SPND is the engineering unit of Tehran’s nuclear-weapons program. Its existence was first revealed in July 2011 in Washington, and it was put on the sanctions list in 2014. The IRGC’s missile sites were created based on North Korean models and blueprints. North Korean experts helped build the sites.

According to the NCRI, the regime remains in power via internal repression and exporting Islamist fundamentalism and terrorism. Its illicit nuclear-weapons program and continued expansion of ballistic missiles serve this export, which increases in importance as the regime becomes more isolated domestically and its grip on society weakens, the NCRI said.

Khamenei said on May 10: “There is no difference between change of behavior and change of regime.” As such, Iranian leaders are united in investing in the ballistic-missile program because they realize the survival of their regime and political establishment are at stake.

On May 23, President Hassan Rouhani said missile activities will continue unabated. The NCRI said the Iranian people deeply oppose Tehran’s nuclear and missile programs and its regional interference. It referred to a major gathering of Iranians and their supporters in Paris on July 1, where they will declare their opposition to Tehran’s export of Islamist terrorism and fundamentalism, its regional interventions and its nuclear and missile programs.

Iran’s ballistic-missile program underscores the need for effective, broad sanctions against the program and all related entities and individuals; designating the IRGC as a terrorist organization; and expelling the IRGC and its affiliated militias and proxies from the region, particularly from Syria and Iraq.

• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated, Iranian-American political scientist. He is a leading expert on Iran and US foreign policy, a businessman and president of the International American Council. He serves on the boards of the Harvard International Review, the Harvard International Relations Council and the US-Middle East Chamber for Commerce and Business.