Iran: A regime with no future

By: Shahriar Kia (Political analyst)

The cabinet ministers of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani received a confidence vote recently in this regime’s parliament. 16 out of 17 ministers were approved after many reports indicated Rouhani reviewed the list extensively with Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

However, an evaluation of this slate of names proves this cabinet will render no alternations and represents the very impasse the entire regime is facing. The next four years will, in fact, be worse than the previous.

Foreign Affairs

Mohammad Javad Zarif has retained his post as foreign minister, considering his role in negotiating the nuclear agreement with the P5+1, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Despite Iran’s threats of relaunching its nuclear drive in the case of US President Donald Trump finding the regime in non-compliance with the JCPOA, Rouhani himself has gone the limits to explain the importance of this pact for Tehran.

“My first priority is to safeguard the JCPOA. The main role of our foreign minister is to stand alongside this deal,” he explained.

Although the deal is rightfully criticized for its loopholes and shortages, Iran understands very well how the current circumstances would be far worse.

While claiming the ability to kick-start 20% uranium enrichment in a matter of days, Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization chief Ali Akbar Salehi made a complete U-turn in emphasizing Tehran’s willingness to stick to the deal in the case of Washington deciding to leave come October.

Such desperate remarks from Iran are made despite the US increasing the heat with new comprehensive sanctions specifically targeting the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC). Further measures are seen following the Vienna visit by Nikki Haley, the US Ambassador to the UN, demanding Iran open its military sites to inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Pressures escalated on Iran as international experts such as former IAEA deputy Olli Heinonen and former IAEA inspector David Albright, alongside three other specialists issued a report explaining how the UN nuclear watchdog lacks the necessary tools to probe possible JCPOA violations by Iran.

These experts specifically referred to the highly controversial Parchin military complex located 30 kilometers southeast of Tehran. Iran only agreed to provide samples extracted by its own experts and continues to refuse access to foreign individuals.

Defense

The new Iranian defense minister is Amir Hatami. Rumors indicate Rouhani and Khamenei have chosen this member of Iran’s classic army due to their fear the IRGC being blacklisted as a terrorist entity.

It is worth noting, however, that Hatami joined the IRGC Basij paramilitary force at the age of 13 and has announced his utter loyalty to the IRGC Quds Force and its ringleader, Qassem Suleimani.

The solution Hatami provides to confront the regime’s slate of crises is focused mainly on developing Iran’s ballistic missile program.

“During this period we will expand our missile capabilities, especially ballistic and cruise missiles,” he explained recently.

This is another indication of a policy based on developing missile power, dispatching IRGC and Basij members abroad, and fueling foreign wars. This is a continuation of Tehran’s four-decade long policy of spilling its own turmoil abroad through lethal meddling.

Hatami also enjoys Rouhani’s complete blessing in providing full support for the IRGC.

“He is fully informed of the Defense Ministry and its agenda. My particular request is for an increase in developing particular weapons, especially missiles, considering their importance,” Rouhani explained in recent remarks.

Again, more of the same.

Economics

Iran’s regime is heavily dependent on oil exports revenues. Bijan Namdar Zangeneh has been called upon to continue his role as oil minister, remaining the longest running individual in this post.

A minister for 26 years there are questions over any meaningful development and changes for the better in the country’s oil and gas sector. Iran is now riddled with mismanaged oil wells, uncontrolled extractions and contracts with foreign companies that literally sell-off the Iranian people’s interests.

According to Rouhani’s own remarks, this regime is in desperate need of $200 billion of foreign investment for its oil and gas industry. Two years into the JCPOA, Iran has received only $12 billion in such deals.

The deal signed with France’s Total, valued at $4.8 billion, comes with numerous strings attached and is under the continued risk of US sanctions.

What needs comprehension is the fact that investing in Iran is an economic issue at a first glance, with countless political reservations. No foreign investor is willing to risk money in a country ruled by a regime known for its ongoing warmongering, exporting terrorism, and provoking confrontations throughout the Middle East and across the globe, such as its nuclear/ballistic missile collaboration with North Korea.

Conclusion

All those having their fingers crossed in Rouhani, being provided a second term by Khamenei, are already being disappointed. July witnessed over 100 executions and over 50 others have been sent to the gallows in August. This includes a 20-year-old man arrested at the age of 15 for his alleged crime. Another recent case involved a hanging on August 28th in a prison west of Tehran.

All foreign correspondents are realizing no change is foreseeable from within this regime. The main message of Rouhani’s new cabinet is this regime’s lack of any capacity for any meaningful modification or amendment.

Any entity lacking the ability to change and adapt has no future

NEW SANCTIONS ON IRAN, NOW IT'S TIME FOR A NEW US POLICY TOO

By Alireza Jafarzadeh

On the second anniversary of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or the Iran nuclear deal, some argue that the agreement succeeded in slowing Iran’s progress toward a nuclear weapon. However, the restrictions on the Iranian nuclear program are only limited, as is the international inspectors’ access to the country’s illicit facilities.In addition, in areas unrelated to the nuclear agreement,

the Iranian regime’s behavior has only gotten worse over the past two years. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has escalated its nefarious activities in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, has deliberately sought out close encounters with American warships, and has boasted of new Iranian military equipment.

Three ways to find the real deals on Amazon

Here’s some trivia for you: Amazon, the largest and most versatile…

 The White House’s efforts to enforce a harder line on Iran policy is well justified and the president’s signing into law of H.R. 3364, which included a title, “Countering Iran’s Destabilizing Activities Act of 2017” is a step in the right direction.

In June, the National Council of Resistance of Iran revealed details of the escalation of the Iranian missile program, proving the nuclear threat to be real. The opposition coalition identified more than 40 sites for missile development, manufacturing, and testing, all of which were under the control of the IRGC. What’s more, at least one of those sites was known to be collaborating with the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research, known by its Farsi acronym SPND, the institution tasked with weaponization activities related to the Iranian nuclear weapons program. SPND activities have continued since the JDPOA.

Such revelations clarified what should already be common knowledge: Iran’s nuclear weapons activities have continued. Even worse, myopic focus on the nuclear issues has distracted attention from the Iranian regime’s terrorism sponsorship, regional intervention, and human rights abuses.

If the IRGC continues to acquire more wealth through its large-scale control of the de-sanctioned Iranian economy, combined with continued lack of access to the nuclear sites of SPND, Iran will undoubtedly deliver a nuclear weapon.

To its credit, the US. has taken steps toward addressing the underlying problem of the IRGC’s expanding control over Iranian affairs. Soon after taking office, Mr. Trump urged the administration to review designating the IRGC as a terrorist organization. With the new Iran sanctions bill now signed into law, the administration should expand all anti-terror sanctions to the whole of the IRGC, including its affiliate entities and associated financial and economic arms.

This is a meaningful start to a new Iran policy that is comprehensive in its aims and in its enforcement. Toward that end, the US should work with the UN and EU to evict the IRCG from the combat zones in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. This will help protect the West and its allies, as well as empower the Iranian people, who are seeking regime change and are more than capable of bringing it about on their own.

Without serious sacrifice, Western powers must do their part. The Iranian regime must be more isolated and financially handicapped by the United States. It must also be subject to pressure not just over its nuclear program but also over a range of current and past crimes, including illicit missile testing, escalating regional and sectarian conflicts in the Middle East, and the 1988 massacre of political prisoners. The United States should subject all major human rights violators of the Iranian regime, including dozens involved in the horrific 1988 massacre of 30,000 political prisoners. Many of the perpetrators of this crime currently hold key positions in the Iranian regime.

These pressures will make a profound difference in the future of Iran, if coupled with reaching out to the people of Iran and their organized opposition. They will succeed in diminishing the power and influence of the IRGC; bolster the Iranian people and the prospect of the emergence of a truly democratic Iranian government.

Alireza Jafarzadeh, the deputy director of the Washington office of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, is credited with exposing Iranian nuclear sites in Natanz and Arak in 2002, triggering International Atomic Energy Agency inspections. He is the author of "The Iran Threat" (Palgrave MacMillan: 2008). His email is Jafarzadeh@ncrius.org , and is on twitter @A_Jafarzadeh
S:NEW SANCTIONSON IRAN, NOW IT'S TIME FOR A NEW US POLICY TOO

WHAT IRAN REALLY WANTS FROM THE NUCLEAR DEAL

by Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

Iran’s ruling clerics frequently complain, without evidence that the US is not complying with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the nuclear deal reached in 2015 between Tehran and six world powers. Since Iran continues to receive significant sanctions relief under the agreement, and is also conducting an increasing amount of business with the West, what exactly are they complaining about, and why?

The accusations that the US is not complying with the deal are part of a strategy that Tehran has employed since the agreement was signed, and which has three major objectives. The first is to coerce the agreement’s other signatories, by threats and tough language, into continuing sanctions relief. The second is to divert attention from Tehran’s own non-compliance with the nuclear agreement. The third is to project a strength that does not exist by bolstering the pretense that Tehran is not desperate for the nuclear agreement to remain in place.

The reality is that Iran needs the nuclear agreement more than the West does. Tehran is hemorrhaging billions of dollars on Bashar Assad in Syria and its Shiite militia proxies there and elsewhere in the region. The continuation of sanctions relief under the nuclear agreement is critical to Tehran.

The US has not violated the nuclear agreement, as Iranian leaders claim. Washington’s unilateral sanctions are a response to Tehran’s ballistic missile program. Since the nuclear agreement was signed, Tehran has fired at least 10 ballistic missiles, some of them into Syria, in violation of UN Security Council Resolution 2231. US sanctions also targeted the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the main player in Iran’s ballistic missile activities and the backbone of its support for terrorist groups in the region. These sanctions have nothing to do with the nuclear agreement, which was signed by several participants, not just Washington and Tehran, and addressed only Tehran’s nuclear program.

In fact, it is Tehran that has breached the deal, and more than once. As US President Donald Trump has pointed out: “They are not in compliance with the agreement and they certainly are not in the spirit of the agreement, and I think you’ll see some very strong things taking place if they don’t get themselves in compliance.”

The Iranian government has not only defied the terms of the nuclear agreement, but has also tried to bypass its restrictions. The Institute for Science and International Security reported that Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization had recently made an attempt to purchase tons of controlled carbon fiber. “This raises concerns over whether Iran intends to abide by its JCPOA commitments,” the institute said. “In particular, Iran may seek to stockpile the carbon fiber so as to be able to build advanced centrifuge rotors far beyond its current needs under the JCPOA, providing an advantage that would allow it to quickly build an advanced centrifuge enrichment plant if it chose to leave or disregard the JCPOA during the next few years.”

Tehran has also twice exceeded the amount of heavy water it is permitted to hold under the terms of the JCPOA. Heavy water is used for the development of nuclear weapons.

Another intelligence report, this one from the German state of Baden-Wurttemberg, states: “Regardless of the number of national and international sanctions and embargoes, countries like Iran, Pakistan and North Korea are making efforts to optimize technology... products and scientific knowhow in the field of developing weapons of mass destruction as well missile technology.”

Another state intelligence report revealed: “German companies in Rhineland-Palatinate were contacted in illegal procurement attempts by Pakistan, North Korea and Iran. The procurement attempts involved goods that were subject to authorization and approval on account of legal export restrictions and UN embargoes. These goods, for example, could be used for a state’s nuclear and missile programs.”

Any expert who has studied Iran’s nuclear file for over a decade knows it is filled with clandestine nuclear activities and defiance of the International Atomic Energy Agency. The nuclear agreement is simply another stage in Iran’s pursuit of regional domination.

• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated, Iranian-American political scientist. He is a leading expert on Iran and US foreign policy, a businessman and president of the International American Council. He serves on the boards of the Harvard International Review, the Harvard International Relations Council and the US-Middle East Chamber for Commerce and Business. He can be reached on Twitter @Dr_Rafizadeh

originally published in the   arabnews
Source:WHAT IRAN REALLY WANTS FROM THE NUCLEAR DEAL

ANALYSIS: How to tackle Iran’s Middle East bellicosity

By Heshmat Alavi

Thanks to years of Western appeasement in the face of Iran’s belligerence across the Middle East, evidence of Tehran’s dangerous footprints are now visible in several countries across the region, including even Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province.

The Trump administration, however, has made it quite vivid its adoption of a firm approach. This stance, signaled in the historic May conference in Riyadh, is long overdue and should be enhanced by Washington supporting the Iranian people’s desire for regime change.

A history of devastation

Iran has a long record of hostility against neighboring countries and US interests in the Middle East. The 1983 bombings targeting the US Embassy and barracks in Beirut, the Khobar Towers attack in 1996, all climaxed in the support Iran provided for Shiite proxies and the Sunni Taliban in their campaign against US-led coalition forces in Afghanistan and Iraq.

In parallel form, the Lebanese Hezbollah and Hamas, two known terrorist groups, have for over 30 years enjoyed contributions from Tehran to fuel sectarianism throughout the Middle East and carry out terrorist attacks.

The Obama administration handed Iraq over to Iran in a silver plate through a strategic mistake of prematurely pulling out all US troops. This paved the path for Iran to further export its “revolution” through a convenient medium of extremist proxies.

The West can literally be accused of standing aside and watching Iran’s aggressive policy. This has rendered a slate of countries, including Afghanistan, Bahrain, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Yemen feel threatened and/or left utterly devastated from Iran’s meddling on their soil.

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani (top-R) attends President Hassan Rouhani’s swearing-in ceremony in Tehran, on August 5, 2017. (AFP)

Troubling activities

Of late, Iran has been reported to send further weapons and narcotics to Yemen’s Houthis. These drugs are sold to provide income for Iran’s supported militias on the ground in the flashpoint country south of Saudi Arabia, Tehran’s archenemy in the region.

Members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) are present in Yemen also to instruct and guide the Houthis in assembling weapons smuggled into the country by Tehran.

“For the last six months the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has begun using waters further up the Gulf between Kuwait and Iran as it looks for new ways to beat an embargo on arms shipments to fellow Shi'ites in the Houthi movement,” Reuters cited Western and Iranian sources.

“Using this new route, Iranian ships transfer equipment to smaller vessels at the top of the Gulf, where they face less scrutiny. The transshipments take place in Kuwaiti waters and in nearby international shipping lanes, the sources said.”

The Iranians are also taking provocative measures against the US Navy in the same region recently, viewed by analysts as actions to learn the limits of US President Donald Trump. On July 26th an armed Iranian patrol boat closed within less than 150 meters of the USS Thunderbolt, yielding back only in response to warning shots fired by a US Navy ship.

Such developments are reasons why Trump contacted his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron “to explore how to increase cooperation in addressing the ongoing crises in Syria and Iraq and countering Iranian malign influence,” according to a White House readout

Positive steps forward

Despite the utterly wrong decision of EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini visiting Tehran for Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s inauguration, the Trump administration is sending push-back signals and making Iran learn its aggressions will not go without cost.

This is a necessary and welcomed shift in Washington’s foreign policy.

President Trump has signed into law a strong bipartisan Congressional initiative imposing strict sanctions on Iran, Russia and North Korea. The IRGC is now considered a Specially Designated Global Terrorist group. Considering the Guards’ control over at least 40 percent of Iran’s entire economy, this raises the stakes for companies considering doing business with Tehran.

It would be wise to reconsider investing in Iran’s $400 billion economy and ponder placing one’s bets in other regional countries, or say, the United States’ $19 trillion establishment.

And in news that most certainly raised eyebrows in Tehran, Iraqi Shiite cleric Muqtada Sadr visited Saudi Arabia recently and called for the controversial Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Units in his country to be dissolved now that the Islamic State has been 

defeated..

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, left, speaks in the official endorsement ceremony of 

President Hassan Rouhani, right, in Tehran, on Aug. 3, 2017. (AP)

The nuclear deal

High hopes were placed in the nuclear deal sealed between the P5+1 and Iran, which Obama hoped to leave behind as his foreign policy legacy.

Two years down this road it has become vivid that Iran’s behavior has not changed, to say the least. In fact, Tehran’s support for Hezbollah and other extremist entities have escalated. Iran’s role in the Middle East, namely Syria, Iraq and Yemen have been horrifically destructive.

The Trump administration can lead the international community in instituting the first real and effective initiative against the Iranian regime.

Any trade with Tehran should hinge on:

- the regime halting all executions and human rights violations,

- withdrawing their forces from Syria and Iraq, and severing any ties and support for terrorist groups,

- completely stopping missile activities, especially ballistic missile production and tests,

- ending all nuclear initiatives and providing true “anytime, anywhere” access to all suspected sites, including military facilities.

Moreover and parallel to recent sanctions, which must be executed immediately and without any loopholes, the Iranian people’s organized opposition, resembled in the National Council of Resistance of Iran, should be recognized. This will pave the path 

for regime change by this coalition without war or military intervention.

Failure in this regard is tantamount to aiding Tehran’s regime 

Opinion: Couple US sanctions with Middle East expulsion of Iran

By: Shahriar Kia 

    The Iranian regime is attempting to secure a corridor through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, providing a supply route for its numerous terrorist proxies in the region.

Iran’s clandestine nuclear and ballistic missile drive, support for terrorism and domestic crackdown are all aimed at maintaining the Tehran’s fascist mullahs in power and pursue their regional policies.

This notorious objective, in direct conflict with those of the regional and global coalitions to fight terrorism and extremism, can be stopped. Eviction of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and all its proxy forces from the Middle East must complete the new US Congress sanctions. With President Donald Trump signaling his approval, this first and foremost step should be taken with hesitation following the sanctions.

The US House of Representatives voted overwhelmingly to rally major new sanctions on Iran, parallel to measures on North Korea and Russia. To impose additional sanctions on Iran’s defense sector, the House voted 419-3. Coming after three weeks of negotiations, this bill “tightens the screws on our most dangerous adversaries,” explained House Speaker Paul Ryan.

Maryam Rajavi, the President-elect of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), welcomed the adoption of a bill by both chambers of the US Congress which imposes new sanctions on the Iranian regime for violating human rights and pursuing ballistic missiles.

“Since several years ago, the Iranian Resistance had urged the terrorist designation of the IRGC, as it preserves the entirety of the clerical regime and acts as its main apparatus for domestic suppression and export of terrorism and fundamentalism,” she stressed. “However, the policy of appeasing the mullahs’ religious dictatorship paved the way for the IRGC and its proxies’ rampage in the entire region.”

A look back at the pivotal role Iran played in the rise and flourishing of ISIS, parallel to sectarian conflicts in the region, will help find the right tracks for security in the region.

In 2008, a joint campaign led by the U.S. military and Iraqi Sunnis rooted al-Qaeda in Iraq, the precursor to ISIS. However, the Obama administration’s decision to pull back and deliver the country to former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki, a close ally of the Iranian regime, eventually led to the unraveling of all previous achievements.

Maliki dismantled the Iraqi “Awakening Council” and gave Iran free pass to exert its full influence on Iraq’s political and military apparatus.

In tandem, the destruction and crimes committed by the IRGC and Bashar al-Assad regime against the Syrian people provided the prefect breeding ground for sectarian strife and allowed ISIS to occupy a wide swath of land straddling both countries.

The Iranian regime became the main beneficiary of the rampage caused by ISIS and subsequently used it as an excuse to expand its clout by forming and later legalizing the IRGC-equivalent Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). This entity has become notoriously renowned for its crimes against humanity, no less horrendous than those committed by ISIS.

Iran’s highest officials have time and again acknowledged funding and supporting the criminal militia forces in Iraq and Syria, expressing their vested interest in occupying neighboring countries through whatever means.

The Obama administration’s hands-off approach vis-à-vis Iran’s regional ambitions provided Tehran a far better opportunity to pursue its nefarious agendas under the pretext of fighting ISIS. Speculations raised U.S. officials on possible cooperation with Iran in the fight against terrorism only made matters worse.

Now, as ISIS is losing influence and ground, Iran is attempting to fill the gap. Letting it have its way would be a recipe for disaster, as proven in the past eight years.

Despite the threats and taunts broadcasted regularly Iran’s state media, the regime is far from capable or inclined to enter open warfare with any other state in the region or across the globe.

Tehran’s proxies are only as good as the funding and supplies the regime provides. Without IRGC support Iran’s proxies will be hard-pressed to spread their mayhem in the region.

Sanctions alone, however, will not be enough. Tehran has found ways to continue causing mischief under the toughest sanctions regime.

The threats rendered by Tehran will only end with regime change in Iran. This will initially benefit the people of Iran, being the first victims of this regime’s criminal ideology, and categorically reject its destructive foreign policy, both inside the country and abroad.

One of the greatest manifestations of the Iranian people’s desire for change was expressed at the July 1st Free Iran gathering in paris. Tens of thousands of Iranian expats as well as politicians, activists and religious figures from across the world attended the rally to express their solidarity and support for the cause of freedom and democracy in Iran.

The event had a clear message: regime change in Iran is the only viable solution for both the people of Iran and the region’s nations. There’s no need for another foreign conflict. The people of Iran and their organized resistance have the will, power and means necessary to realize this change.

Saudi Prince Turki Al Faisal also addressed the massive gathering.

“So, you have coming together now a mighty coalition of forces, joining with the Resistance, and that should give us hope that we can make that [regime] change,” he stressed.

=======

*Shahriar Kia is an Iranian dissident and a political analyst on Iran and the Middle East. He is a member of the Iranian opposition and a graduate of North Texas University

Source:Opinion: Couple US sanctions with Middle East expulsion of Iran

ANALYSIS: Understanding Iran’s missile belligerence

By Heshmat Alavi


Monday, 31 July 2017

Iran has recently witnessed increasing pressures from both sides of the Atlantic, especially over its ballistic missile ambitions. After weeks of deliberations, the US Congress passed initiatives imposing unprecedented restrictions on Tehran.

Just one day after Iran test-launched a satellite-carrying rocket, the Europeans on Friday joined their American allies in sharpening their tone on Iran’s mullahs, demanding an immediate cessation.

The US Treasury Department also responded sharply, imposing even further sanctions on six companies owned or supervised by the Shahid Hemmat Industrial Group, known to play a central role in Tehran’s ballistic drive. All their US assets have been frozen and US citizens barred from dealing with the six firms.

As expected, Iran has continued its refusal to cooperate. “We will continue with full power our missile program,” said Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Ghasemi to state broadcaster 

IRIB.

The differentiation

A logical conclusion would be for Iran is to yield back on its ballistic missile program. Yet this isn’t necessarily the case for Tehran.

We are dealing with a completely pragmatic regime, moving its pawns very carefully, with the utmost calculus to the very end. Iran needs to maintain face on two different issues:

1) While not understood by many in the West, the mullahs desperately need to maintain a straight face before its already dwindling social base.

2) Iran will continue to set the stakes high for the international community – meaning continue their missile program – until pressures corner it in the ring, similar to 2013 when sanctions forced Iran into the nuclear negotiations.

Iran needs to undergo missile tests similar to those seen Thursday, claiming to seek placing satellites into orbit. Whereas it is common knowledge the same technology is used to develop intercontinental 

ballistic missiles enabling Iran to threaten targets in mainland United States.

 

A handout picture released by Iran’s Defense Ministry on July 27, 2017 shows a Simorgh (Phoenix) satellite rocket at its launch site at an undisclosed location in Iran. (AFP)

Foul objectives

While Iran abandoned any intention to place a man into space, it continues to seek similar objectives even despite reports of the recent “Simorgh” test-launch failure last week.

As Iran’s ballistic missile program is known to have received huge amounts of support from the North Koreans, Iran itself is known for parties abroad through providing missile armament.

The Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen launched a ballistic missile Thursday fired targeting the Muslim holy city of Mecca in Saudi Arabia, only to be shot down, according to the Saudi-led coalition fighting the Tehran proxies. This shows both the threats posed by Iran’s ballistic missile program, as such arsenal can be provided to dangerous groups abroad, and to what extent Iran will go.

Further to the west in the flashpoint Middle East region reports also indicate of Iran building and launching underground missile production factories in Lebanon. This is a new form of exporting instability and extremism for Iran, and these sites are currently controlled completely by the Lebanese Hezbollah, Tehran’s main terrorist offspring.

On a side-note of Iran’s missile ambitions, L. Todd Reed explains in The Washington Times, “The argument could be made that the consequence of the nuclear deal was Iran being able to buy sophisticated weapons and Russia having the cash to stay in the Middle East as a military power.”

Zolfaghar missiles on display during a rally marking al-Quds Day in Tehran on June 23, 2017. (AFP)

A new era

What is terrifying Iran, however, is the new and unexpected landscape it finds itself in as the Trump administration is busy overhauling the highly flawed Obama foreign policy vis-à-vis Tehran.

Senior Iranian regime officials were heard threatening attacks against American bases prior to last week’s unparalleled sanctions mainly targeting the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC). Both chambers of the US Congress passed their bills with veto-proof authority.

Iran has also sensed this change in language by the West and has begun to act accordingly. A recent piece in The Hill best explains this transition:

“A mere shift in tone from the [Trump] administration already appears to have affected Iran’s calculus. While Iran has continued missile and space launch vehicle testing, it has not launched another nuclear capable, medium-range ballistic missile since being put “on notice” by the White House in February. In Syria, Iranian-backed forces have not targeted the U.S. military outright, even though the US twice downed Iranian-made Shahed-129 drones.”

The Europeans have also shown signs of significant changes. While Iran has taken advantage of its relations with the Green Continent to close economic agreements, the European Troika – France, Germany and the United Kingdom – also joined their American allies in condemning Iran’s recent rocket test as “inconsistent with United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231.”

Neither destabilizing impact of Iran’s ballistic missile ambitions on the Middle East, nor the IRGC’s role in this regard can be denied. It is also true that Iran took advantage of Obama’s disastrous appeasement/engagement policy to advance its missile arsenal to the utmost extent.

Despite the new US sanctions restricting and blacklisting the IRGC being long overdue, needed now is for the Trump administration to fully implement such actions against Iran. There is no more room for reservations that have to this day provided Iran paths to bypass and derail international community efforts.

The countries of Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen have suffered the most of Iran’s belligerence, and the full eviction of the IRGC footprints from these states would be the next necessary step forward against Tehran’s regime


Source:ANALYSIS: Understanding Iran’s missilebelligerence