By Heshmat Alavi
Monday, 31 July 2017
Iran has recently witnessed increasing pressures
from both sides of the Atlantic, especially over its ballistic missile
ambitions. After weeks of deliberations, the US Congress passed initiatives
imposing unprecedented
restrictions on Tehran.
Just one day after Iran test-launched a
satellite-carrying rocket, the Europeans on Friday joined their American allies
in sharpening their tone on Iran’s mullahs, demanding an immediate cessation.
The US Treasury Department also responded sharply, imposing even
further sanctions on six companies owned or supervised by the Shahid Hemmat
Industrial Group, known to play a central role in Tehran’s ballistic drive. All
their US assets have been frozen and US citizens barred from dealing with the six firms.
As expected, Iran has continued its refusal to
cooperate. “We will continue with full power our missile program,” said Iranian
Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Ghasemi to state broadcaster
IRIB.
The differentiation
A logical conclusion would be for Iran is to yield
back on its ballistic missile program. Yet this isn’t necessarily the case for
Tehran.
We are dealing with a completely pragmatic regime,
moving its pawns very carefully, with the utmost calculus to the very end. Iran needs to
maintain face on two different issues:
1) While not understood by
many in the West, the mullahs desperately need to maintain a straight face
before its already dwindling social base.
2) Iran will continue to set the stakes high for the international community – meaning continue
their missile program – until pressures corner it in the ring, similar to 2013
when sanctions forced Iran into the nuclear negotiations.
Iran needs to undergo missile tests similar to
those seen Thursday, claiming to seek placing satellites into orbit. Whereas it is common
knowledge the same technology is used to develop intercontinental
ballistic
missiles enabling Iran to threaten targets in mainland United States.
A handout picture released by Iran’s Defense Ministry on July 27,
2017 shows a Simorgh (Phoenix) satellite rocket at its launch site at an
undisclosed location in Iran. (AFP)
Foul objectives
While Iran abandoned any intention to place a man
into space, it continues to seek similar objectives even despite reports of the recent “Simorgh”
test-launch failure last week.
As Iran’s ballistic missile program is known to
have received huge amounts of support from the North Koreans, Iran itself is
known for parties abroad through providing missile armament.
The Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen launched a
ballistic missile Thursday fired targeting the Muslim holy city of Mecca in
Saudi Arabia, only to be shot down, according to the Saudi-led coalition
fighting the Tehran proxies. This shows both the threats posed by Iran’s ballistic
missile program, as such arsenal can be provided to dangerous groups abroad,
and to what extent Iran will go.
Further to the west in the flashpoint Middle East
region reports also indicate of Iran building and launching underground missile production
factories in Lebanon. This is a new form of exporting instability and extremism
for Iran, and these sites are currently controlled completely by the Lebanese
Hezbollah, Tehran’s main terrorist offspring.
On a side-note of Iran’s missile ambitions, L. Todd Reed
explains in The Washington Times, “The argument could be made that the
consequence of the nuclear deal was Iran being able to buy sophisticated
weapons and Russia having the cash to stay in the Middle East as a military
power.”
Zolfaghar missiles on display during a rally
marking al-Quds Day in Tehran on June 23, 2017. (AFP)
A new era
What is terrifying Iran, however, is the new and
unexpected landscape it finds itself in as the Trump administration is busy
overhauling the highly
flawed Obama foreign policy vis-à-vis Tehran.
Senior Iranian regime officials were heard
threatening attacks against American bases prior to last week’s unparalleled
sanctions mainly targeting the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC). Both chambers of
the US Congress passed their bills with veto-proof authority.
Iran has also sensed this change in language by
the West and has begun to act accordingly. A recent piece in The Hill best
explains this transition:
“A mere shift in tone from
the [Trump] administration already appears to have affected Iran’s calculus. While Iran has continued
missile and space launch vehicle testing, it has not launched another nuclear
capable, medium-range ballistic missile since being put “on notice” by the
White House in February. In Syria, Iranian-backed forces have not targeted the U.S. military outright,
even though the US twice downed Iranian-made Shahed-129 drones.”
The Europeans have also shown signs of significant
changes. While Iran has taken advantage of its relations with the Green
Continent to close economic agreements, the European Troika – France, Germany and the United
Kingdom – also joined their American allies in condemning Iran’s recent rocket
test as “inconsistent with United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231.”
Neither destabilizing impact of Iran’s ballistic missile ambitions on the
Middle East, nor the IRGC’s role in this regard can be denied. It is also true
that Iran took advantage of Obama’s disastrous appeasement/engagement policy to
advance its missile arsenal to the utmost extent.
Despite the new US sanctions restricting and blacklisting the IRGC
being long overdue, needed now is for the Trump administration to fully
implement such actions against Iran. There is no more room for reservations
that have to this day provided Iran paths to bypass and derail international community
efforts.
Source:ANALYSIS: Understanding Iran’s missilebelligerence
